NKE · NIKE, Inc.
The $0.72 asterisk: a five-fold EPS jump that is mostly a court ruling
Hook
Nike's headline Q4 EPS of $0.72 is up 414% from $0.14 — but $0.52 of it is a one-time benefit from the expected recovery of tariffs the Supreme Court ruled unauthorized in February. Strip it out and this is a $0.20 quarter with revenue still shrinking. The real story is where the shrinking has stopped, and where it hasn't.
The 5 numbers
- Revenue$10.97B, −1% reported / −4% currency-neutral [ER: headline bullets] · consensus ~$10.86B [CNBC]
- Diluted EPS$0.72 including a $0.52 IEEPA tariff-recovery benefit → ~$0.20 ex-item (derived) vs $0.14 last year [ER: headline bullets; income statement] · consensus ~$0.13 [CNBC]
- Gross margin49.2%, +890bps — but ~900bps came from the $986M expected tariff recovery; underlying margin roughly flat (derived) [ER: Q4 Income Statement Review]
- The channel reversalWholesale +4% ($6.6B) vs NIKE Direct −7% ($4.1B), Digital −12% — the DTC-first era is formally running in reverse [ER: Q4 Income Statement Review]
- Buried detailOnly ~$0.3B of the $986M recovery arrived as cash; the rest is a receivable (AR +26% YoY to $5.9B). The EPS jump is, for now, mostly non-cash [ER: Balance Sheet Review; balance sheet]
Beat / miss vs consensus
Beat on both lines against reduced expectations: adjusted EPS ~$0.20 vs ~$0.13 expected; revenue $10.97B vs ~$10.86B expected [CNBC, Jun 30, 2026 — third-party compiled].
Bull lens
North America is growing again (Q4 +3%, footwear +4%; full-year +5%) and the wholesale reset is producing growth with a clean channel — inventories flat YoY at $7.5B [ER: Divisional Revenues; Balance Sheet Review]. A real cash tailwind is queued: ~$686M of the tariff recovery still to be collected (derived), on top of S&A down 2% and full-year dividends up 5% [ER: Q4 review; Shareholder Returns].
Bear lens
Greater China is getting worse (Q4 −12% reported / −17% currency-neutral; full-year China EBIT −20%) and the high-margin channels are still the ones shrinking: Digital −12%, ex-tariff gross margin flat [ER: Divisional Revenues; EBIT table; Q4 review]. Brand heat problems extend beyond the swoosh — Converse −32% in Q4, full-year Converse EBIT down 93%; full-year Jordan Brand −3% [ER: Divisional Revenues + footnote 3; EBIT table].
Ready-to-publish angle
"Fiscal 2027 gets the cash; fiscal 2026 got the optics." Delivered formats: a 150-word newsletter section (shown in the delivered brief) and an X-thread skeleton, in your voice, with the verification table attached.
Verification & disclaimer
14-line verification table delivered with the brief: each figure, its source tag, and a confident / check-this flag — including what was deliberately excluded (FY27 guidance was given on the call, not in the filing, so it isn't quoted here). Informational only. Not investment advice. No recommendation or rating of any security is made or implied.